Practice question · Multiple choice
Athletes who appear on a magazine cover after an exceptional season usually do worse the following year. The 'cover jinx' has a duller explanation. What is it?
Hints
- Ask why they were on the cover. What kind of season gets selected?
- If performance is skill plus luck, what happens to the luck component next year?
Show the answer
A. Regression to the mean, since luck does not persist
Why
Extreme observations are selected partly for their luck, and luck does not repeat, so the follow-up drifts back toward the true level with no causal story needed. The dangerous version is in evaluation: praise appears to hurt and punishment appears to work, purely because each follows an extreme.
Practise Statistical Tests and Correlation
The app has 7 more questions on this lesson, and keeps your place in the course. Psychology I is free to start.