Practice question · Multiple choice
A country's fertility rate falls below replacement today, and its population keeps growing for another thirty years. What explains the lag?
Hints
- Ask how many potential parents there are, not how many children each has.
- A rate is per person. What does the age structure contribute?
Show the answer
D. Population momentum, from a large cohort of childbearing age
Why
A rate below replacement multiplied by an unusually large parent cohort still yields more births than deaths, and the structure takes a generation to work through. This is why demographic forecasts are unusually reliable, the people who will be forty in forty years are already born.
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