Business I / The Entrepreneur
Practice question · Estimate

A founder invests 50k€. With probability 0.5 the venture returns 130k€; otherwise 0€. Set the slider to the expected net gain in k€.

Estimate on a scale from -50k€ (-50) to +80k€ (80).

Hints
  1. Expected revenue: 0.5130=650.5 \cdot 130 = 65k€.
  2. Subtract the 50k€ committed up front.
Show the answer

15 (answers within ±4 count)

Why

Expected net gain =0.5(130)50=15= 0.5(130) - 50 = 15k€. A thin expected margin on a coin flip, the everyday arithmetic of Knightian judgment.

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