Physics I / Simulation and numerical experimentation
Practice question · Multiple choice

A Monte Carlo estimate uses 10,000 samples. Going to 40,000, four times the work, halves the error rather than quartering it. Why?

Hints
  1. The estimate is a sample mean. What is the standard error of a mean of NN draws?
  2. Set 1/N1/\sqrt{N} against 1/4N1/\sqrt{4N} and take the ratio.
Show the answer

B. Because the error falls as 1/N1/\sqrt{N}, so tenfold costs a hundred

Why

The estimate is an average, so its standard error goes as σ/N\sigma/\sqrt{N}, four times the samples buys a factor of two. That square-root wall is why Monte Carlo is chosen for problems where nothing else works rather than where accuracy is cheap, and why variance reduction is worth more than raw sample count.

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