Complete the account of the three effects that any study of change over time must separate.
An ______ effect is what changes as people grow older, in any period. A ______ effect is what changes for everybody at once at a given moment. A ______ effect is what is distinctive about people born at a particular time. Because the third is exactly the second minus the first, they are linearly ______ and cannot be separated without an outside assumption.
Word bank: age · period · cohort · dependent · era · independent
Hints
- The three are usually abbreviated by their initials in that order.
- The final blank describes a relation that makes statistical separation impossible.
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An age effect is what changes as people grow older, in any period. A period effect is what changes for everybody at once at a given moment. A cohort effect is what is distinctive about people born at a particular time. Because the third is exactly the second minus the first, they are linearly dependent and cannot be separated without an outside assumption.
Stating the dependence precisely is what turns a vague warning into a usable rule. Any published estimate that reports all three effects has imposed a constraint — equal effects for two adjacent cohorts, a zero linear trend, a functional form — and the credibility of the result rests entirely on whether that constraint is defensible for the case at hand.
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