Sort each crisis by whether it left GERMANY more isolated or left RUSSIA or its clients aggrieved.

Left Germany more isolated: The first Moroccan crisis and the Algeciras conference, The Agadir crisis of 1911

Left Russia or Serbia aggrieved: The Austrian annexation of Bosnia in 1908, The Balkan Wars, which doubled Serbia in size

The pattern explains why 1914 was different. Each Moroccan crisis pushed Britain and France closer while leaving Germany with only Austria; each Balkan crisis left Russia determined not to give way again and Serbia stronger and bolder. By 1914 both sides had learned that backing down cost them, which is a dangerous thing for every party to a crisis to believe.