Systems Do Not Make Decisions
Bismarck's diplomacy aimed to isolate France and keep Austria and Russia peaceful. He constructed a complex network of agreements:
- The Dual Alliance with Austria-Hungary (1879)
- The Triple Alliance adding Italy (1882)
- The Reinsurance Treaty with Russia (1887)
Wilhelm II let the Russian treaty lapse. Consequently, Russia allied with France in 1894. Britain then ended its isolation through two colonial settlements:
- The Entente Cordiale (1904) resolved disputes over Egypt and Morocco.
- The Anglo-Russian Convention (1907) settled spheres in Persia, Afghanistan, and Tibet.
These were not military alliances. In 1914, Britain entered the war over the invasion of Belgium, not an entente obligation.
Security tensions escalated through the Anglo-German naval race. German Naval Laws in 1898 and 1900 challenged British supremacy. Britain launched HMS Dreadnought in 1906, resetting naval competition.
A series of international crises followed:
| Crisis | Year | Result |
|---|---|---|
| First Moroccan | 1905–06 | Germany isolated at Algeciras |
| Bosnian annexation | 1908 | Russia humiliated; Serbia inflamed |
| Agadir Crisis | 1911 | Anglo-French cooperation deepens |
| Balkan Wars | 1912–13 | Serbia doubles in size |
The Road to 1914
Domestic politics also transformed Europe before the war. The German SPD won 35 per cent (35) of the vote in the 1912 Reichstag elections. The Second International, founded in 1889, opposed imperialist war. Yet in August 1914, socialist parties voted for war credits.
The final crisis began with the assassination in Sarajevo on 28 June 1914:
- 23 July: Austria issues an ultimatum to Serbia.
- 28 July: Austria declares war on Serbia; Russia mobilises.
- 1 August: Germany declares war on Russia.
- 3 August: Germany declares war on France and invades Belgium.
- 4 August: Britain declares war on Germany.
Historians still debate the causes of the war. Fritz Fischer argued that Germany deliberately pursued European hegemony. Conversely, Christopher Clark spreads responsibility across all major powers, highlighting Russian and Serbian choices.
Common pitfall: Viewing alliances as mechanical triggers. Alliances did not force action. Italy belonged to the Triple Alliance but stayed neutral in 1914, later joining the Entente in 1915. Human decisions, not automatic systems, caused the war.