The Biased Survivor
Historical evidence is not a random sample; it is a biased survivor. Three filters run before a historian opens a box:
- What got recorded. The powerful write things down. A tax assessor generates documents; a shepherd generates none.
- What got kept. Archives preserve what institutions valued, which usually served the institution.
- What survived. Fire, damp, and war destroyed the rest. Stone outlasts wood; gold outlasts bread.
Each filter tilts toward the wealthy, literate, and male. The archive's shape is a political fact.
The Argument From Silence
The inference of no evidence of X, therefore no X is valid only if evidence would very likely have survived.
The test: Ask what the record would look like if the thing had happened. If the answer is identical, the silence tells you about the archive, not the past.
Bias Is Not Contamination
A partisan source is a source about different things. Propaganda is worthless for conditions, but priceless for what a regime needed people to believe.
| Question | What a biased source gives you |
|---|---|
| Did it happen? | Weak, check independent traces |
| What was said? | Often strong |
| What was believable? | Very strong, reveals the plausible |
| What did the author want? | Excellent, bias is the datum |
Testimony against interest is unusually strong: a chronicler admitting an atrocity had reason to hide it. Incidental detail is strong: a document's offhand remarks reveal social history.
Objectivity, Properly Defined
Objectivity is a procedure, not a position. State criteria, seek disconfirming evidence, represent sources fairly, and publish so others can check.