One Shock, Two Outcomes
The fourteenth century brought severe crises. The Great Famine (1315–1317) struck northern Europe after heavy rains. In 1347, the Black Death arrived in Sicily and swept across the continent.
Mortality was immense. England suffered plague outbreaks in 1348, 1361, 1369, and 1375. Europe lost between a third and a half of its people.
Labour became scarce, so wages surged. In England, real wages doubled after 1350. The English government passed the Ordinance of Labourers in 1349 and the Statute of Labourers in 1351. These laws tried to freeze wages, but largely failed.
East of the Elbe, the demographic shock had the opposite result. Lords bound peasants to the land, creating the second serfdom.
This divide sparked the Brenner debate. Historian Robert Brenner argued that demography alone cannot explain these contrasting paths. In the West, strong peasant solidarity resisted lords. In the East, weaker communities succumbed to landlord control.
Crises and Living Standards
The era experienced repeated systemic strain across Europe:
| Crisis | Dates | What it strained |
|---|---|---|
| Great Famine | 1315–1317 | Food supply at peak population |
| Black Death | from 1347 | Labour supply and manorial life |
| Hundred Years War | 1337–1453 | Royal finance and rural stability |
| Western Schism | 1378–1417 | Papal authority |
| Popular Revolts | 1358, 1378, 1381 | Social deference |
Revolts reflected rising peasant confidence rather than sheer misery. The English revolt of 1381 was triggered by a poll tax. Its leaders demanded an end to serfdom.
Common pitfall: assuming that population collapse impoverishes survivors. In western Europe, scarce labour drove wages up and rents down. Surviving workers enjoyed higher living standards.